According to venture capitalist Fred Wilson, Apple will not be the leading technology company in 2020. He says that Apple focuses too much on hardware and not enough on software to remain the leader in technology for very long.
He said that by 2020, Apple will not even be in the top three technology companies, adding that Google, Facebook and a third unknown company will pass the hardware giant. He said that Apple does not focus on the cloud enough and that its technologies in the cloud are not up to par with what other companies are doing.
Wilson’s company has been known to be very successful in investing earlier in companies that later have grown to become very important. His company has investments in companies such as Twitter, Kickstarter and Foursquare. He said that Twitter will be a top ten technology company by 2020.
However, the statistics alone do not work in Wilson’s favor. Apple’s stock continues to grow every single year, growing over 30 percent in the last year alone. The sale of iPhones and iPads continues to grow, especially in countries such as India, where Apple is no longer behind Android-based companies like Samsung any longer.
He said that the market is much different in other countries. While many phone users in the US sign up for contracts that last a couple of years, in most of the world, consumers do not work that way. They usually buy sim cards and put them into the devices that they want to buy, instead of signing agreements with phone companies. Statistics do support his claim, since Android phones currently make up almost 80 percent of the world market and continue to grow.
Wilson’s claims are not so far-fetched if you take into consideration giants that have fallen over the last ten years, such as AOL and Yahoo. If Apple does not develop its software technologies and doesn’t start to focus on the cloud more, then a slide might be likely in the coming years. Only time will tell whether or not Wilson’s predictions will come true.